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Price: $64.99 Prices subject to change.
Availability: Usually ships in 1-2 business days
Binding: Hardcover
Dewey Decimal Number: 123.3
EAN: 9781587991905
Edition: 2
ISBN: 158799190X
Label: Texere
Manufacturer: Texere
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 312
Publication Date: April 16, 2004
Publisher: Texere
Studio: Texere
Alternate Versions: Click to Display
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Editorial Review:
Amazon.com Review:
If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards
Product Description:
Selected by Amazon.com and the Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. It's uniqueness has drawn to it a wide following - from the New Yorker to the Pentagon. Already published in 14 languages, this new edition, expanded by over 80 pages, includes up-to-date advances from behavioral finance and cognitive science This book is about luck ? or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill ? the world of trading ? Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
Average Rating: 
Rating:  -
Nutshell review - This is an excellent book - well written, insightful, full of lessons for investing (and life) and eye-opening! Certainly if you are an investor, but also if you just want to understand just how large a role randomness plays in your life, then you need to read this book. Entertaining and informative at the same time.
Two other excellent books in the same genre are The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives by Leonard Mlodinow and, of course, Taleb's later book The Black Swan (awesome).
Rating: -
The author is a trader and writes about trading. The book, however, is not at all a mere how-to book on investing but deals with much broader topics on life in general. You may not learn anything new if you are familiar with probability and statistics; however, the author eloquently illuminates those "random" elements in society in various interesting perspectives, including history, science, philosophy, mathematics, psychology, and so on. The author's illustrious reading habit made this a very intellectually stimulating book.
The author properly points out the survivor bias in those successful people in the market where randomness plays an especially huge role, as well as the stupidity of listening to inept journalists who cannot distinguish signals from noises. However, I do not necessarily think that the book has a thorough enough introduction to the concept of randomness for the readers who are not very well versed in the concept of Monte Carlo techniques. If you are ... Read More
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I loved the rant and I loved the stories. While sometimes a little bit hard to stay in the flow of it, I think I learned as much of value from this book than anything I read in school. Really drove home some key value lessons about finance and way beyond.
Better lucky than good though best to be both!
Rating: -
This (and its sister book 'The Black Swan) completely blew me away. I am a 24 year old finance major, now working as a management consultant, with a real interest in markets and psychology.
The central thesis of the books are tantalisingly simple: the world is so functionally complex (and growing ever more so) that most social phenomena are effectively `random'. Randomness, however, is poorly understood and even more poorly explained by orthodox mathematical modelling which systematically underestimates the `wild randomness' inherent in the world. Taleb suggests (and attempts to demonstrate) that merely understanding the deficiencies of orthodox thinking with regard to randomness (and probability) is a big advantage in life.
The book(s) are a must read for people looking to understand more deeply the world we live in and the limitations with mainstream thought generally and modern portfolio theory more specifically.
I cannot recommend these books highly ... Read More
Rating:  -
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This is an interesting idea, and deserves some thought. Unfortunately, Taleb immediately sets the tone of his book as a pseudo-intellectual examination of the human approach to life and wealth. He writes about an obscure historical story of King Croesus and Solon. Solon tells Croesus to not be so proud of his riches, because times can change, and his riches can disappear quickly. Voila, Solon turns out to be right - Croesus loses a battle to King Cyrus and loses everything he owns. Taleb celebrates this story's moral as one of his book's finest points: "it ain't over till it's over." My response is: "huh!? no shit."
Taleb then launches into a discussion of how everyone in the world is "fooled by randomness." He writes chapter upon chapter of pseudo-philosophical discourse on how we leave ourselves open to large risks, often without understanding them.
Throughout the entire book, there are really only two points that I remember, or ... Read More
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